THE POWER OF INDIA – INDIA AS THE DARK HORSE IN A PROBABLE SINO-INDIAN CONFLICT

The picture which is often projected of a probable war between China and India sometime in the not so distant future is as if it would be a cakewalk for China, and something which would prove to be inherently detrimental to India’s territorial integrity and interests. Far from real, if we see things in their proper unbiased perspective, we infer that the Indian side will be in a position to inflict heavy casualities on the enemy if not win the war altogether.

The Indian media is prophetic and apprehensive about a possible Indian war with it’s giant Eastern neighbor in the coming years.  This anxiety is reinforced by the frequent Chinese incursions into the Indian Kashmir and the recent tough stand taken by the Chinese govt on controversial issues like strengthening it’s claim over Arunachal and other anti-India rumblings in the policies of Chinese establishment. This all reminds us of the pre-1962 days. And a section of media feels that a Chinese invasion could be as near as 2012 (Exactly 50 years after the last Sino-Indian war). And it is generally perceived that a Sino-Indian conflict automatically implies  a big loss for India in terms of men, money, material and territory while China would anything but gain from this likely conflict. This premise gains strength from the recent emergence of China as an economic global superpower, which has translated into heavy expenditure on arms and ammunition, leading to it’s building of a superstrong army, with sophisticated weapons and warfare technology, which in terms of overall ability is next only to the United States. But where most experts fail to judge is the simultaneous rise of the Indian army, as the modern defence force of a superpower in waiting. Here I will enumerate why 1962 is not likely to be repeated should India and China go to war once again -:

1)      THE RISE OF MILLITARIST INDIA – Post-1962 war drubbing India got at the hands of China, things began to change drastically. Nehru was unequivocally condemned and accused of being ‘ a rosy day dreamer’ who betrayed national territorial integrity by invoking the ‘illusionary’ lofty ideals of Internationalism and World Peace. The nation geared up for a strong army and began weaponisation programmes. Taking advantage of India’s low morale, Pakistan invaded in 1965. Pakistan got a serious drubbing and in fact Indian army was on the verge of taking over Lahore, Pakistan’s premiere metropolitan city before cease fire was announced and truce called for. In 1974, India exploded her first atom bomb device under the leadership of Mrs Indira Gandhi, which made the country a de facto nuclear state. Mrs Gandhi, popularly referred to as Indira Jee, exalted the status of India to great heights by liberating Bangladesh (Then East Pakistan) from the clutches of Pakistan. Sikkim an independent country,was included into India peacefully and democratically, under her reign. These events rebooted the confidence of Indian nation and national army.

However, a watershed development happened in May 1998, when around the Buddha Purnima day India under the leadership of BJP led NDA exploded 5 atomic bombs including a hydrogen  bomb. If 1974 test had brought India on the threshold of Nuclear status, then 1998 completed that process to it’s logical end (as much is possible under the given circumstances).

Over the years India has become a very rapidly growing economy and spends heavily on defence. In fact, it is believed that the country is the largest buyer of arms and defence material in the world. India spent about $32 bln on defence budget in FY2010., which is quite high even from global standards. In the next 10 years India is going to make exhorbitant expenditure ($ 200 bln (Yes!) on defence purchases. India’s R&D technology is also advancing. Recently the country launched it’s first Light Combat Aircraft – Tejas, and became the 5^th country in the world to do so after USA, Russia, France and UK.

2)      THE LOGISTICAL FACTOR – INDIA HAS THE TRADITIONAL ADVANTAGE

While the disputed regions and areas of confrontation between India and China, lie at the remote corner of the huge Chinese nation ; on the other hand these areas are very close to Indian mainland and in fact the two regions – Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh lie very close to Indian flatlands, namely the Srinagar Valley and The Brahmaputra valley respectively. If China has built massive infrastructure in the form of highways, bridges, damns, it is more because it needs these constructions. While the Indian region lies relatively on the low Himalayas, the Chinese army has to traverse greatest of heights and hostilities to reach here. These factors would surely help India in the event of a war.

3)      INFERENCES FROM HISTORY

India lost the 1962 war against China. But then only 10,000-12,000 indian soldiers were deployed there as against 80, 000 strong Chinese presence. Inspite of that Indian soldiers could kill as many as 722 Chinese, as against 1383 Indians killed and much more Chinese soldiers were wounded as compared to Indian soldiers. This hints at a much better strike rate from the Indian side. Had it been even a little more military minded Prime Minister than Nehru, situation could have been different.

4)      PAST MISTAKES UNLIKELY TO BE REPEATED

Now no political party in India can afford to take this war lightly. This is not the age of Congress monopoly, rather the time belongs to cut throat political competitiveness. There will be no lacking from India domestically.

5)      CONCLUSION

I do not say India will clearly win this war, but it would surely be a competitive one, with an edge for China but such that India too will be able to inflict serious casualities on the Chinese.

XXX