(A PERSONAL VIEW OF THE WRITER OF THIS WRITE-UP - NISHKARSH PANDEY, WRITTEN ON 2ND DECEMBER, 2011)
With elections round the corner in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the big question being raised now is who will rule the state in post-elections 2012. It is highly likely, that Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), will come back to power once again, and with a larger majority than the previous elections.
In the last over four years rule of BSP government in Uttar Pradesh, one undisputable achievement of the Mayawati government has been that they have been successful in retaining their core support base – Dalits. From the huge Ambedkar park to the numerous statues of Dalit icons which dot the capital city Lucknow and other important towns of the state, and from the generous welfare schemes that their government have rolled out for the ‘downtrodden’ to the symbolism of the just-established Dalit formidability – all these factors impress, allure and entice her core voters like nothing else. She has created, in the minds of her voters, a sense of immense Dalit activism, a feeling that she has done for them what no one could do in the last 5,000 years of Brahminical civilization, a hardcore Dalit leader has risen to huge heigts of her own accord, and for the first time Brahmins have voted for Dalit suzerainty (Brahmins had voted in large numbers for BSP in 2007 elections) – a complete inversion of the millennia old pyramid of social hierarchy. So her voters treat her as a messiah, a powerful leader – who has given them their due under the sun.
Many may point out at the magnitude of corruption in the BSP government, but to their core voters, it is a blatant ‘upper-caste conspiracy’ to bring down their leader and their newly established socio-political order. So it is unlikely that their core voters are going to desert them, even partly.
OTHER PARTIES’ POSITIONS – Congress : Saddled with corruption, SP : Loosing support base, BJP : Lacking wave
Among the various opposition parties, none seems to be in a position to take on the BSP. While Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), which largely depended on Yadav-Muslim caste combination for it’s rise, is seeing a rapid dent in it’s Muslim votebank, owing largely to poaching by BSP and Congress. So without muslim support, SP can not do much. It faces a serious crisis as with just Yadavs as it’s support base, could mean serious electoral setback and even existential crisis in the not-so-distant future.
Congress, which has been banking on it’s spectacular performance in the state in the Lok Sabha elections 2009, may also suffer a serious setback. The immense corruption charges the central government faces, is not going to go well with it’s voters. Besides, it remains to be seen whether the road shows and night stays at Dalits’ homes, being enthusiastically undertaken by the Gandhi scion, are going to have much impact on the people. A serious leadership deficit at the state level is also a fallacy of the highest order.
BJP stood at an abysmally low level electorally in the last elections, and it is unlikely that it would fall down any further from here. It is likely to marginally improve it’s tally but would be of no match to the mighty BSP. The re-induction of Uma Bharti and her canvassing in the state for BJP, may somewhat improve it’s tally.
BSP’S WINNING CASTE COMBINATION
While 23% dalits would vote for BSP en-bloc, many MBCs (Most Backwards Castes, i.e. OBCs other than Yadavs and Kurmis) are also likely to vote for BSP in tune with ‘the Bahujan Cause’ as they now feel ideologically closer to BSP, and Mayawati has spared no efforts in wooing them.
A big chunk of Muslims too will vote for BSP, as they feel benefited by the state government’s welfare schemes and will prefer BSP to Congress and SP as it can take on the BJP in a better manner.
Upper Castes would be the most divided lot. A good number will vote for Congress. A significant number are likely to vote for BSP (particularly Brahmins from rural areas). Some will vote for BJP.
The proposal to divide Uttar Pradesh into four parts will also advantage the BSP. Though it is yet to be approved by the Parliament and Central government, but Mayawati has clearly shown her commitment to the issue, by getting the bill passed in UP assembly, within 20 minutes, inspite of stiff opposition. The sympathizers and desirers of ‘division’ of the state in different corners are likely to be swayed by this political masterstroke.
If we see across the social faultlines of divided Uttar Pradesh, we find that only Dalits are clear and determined to make their leader win. All others castes are divided, confused and unfocussed. Overall it appears BSP will be an easy winner. While Congress may get upper castes votes but it is unlikely to get many Muslim votes.
It is a predicament which many would deplore (as a highly corrupt and casteist party would win), while others would celebrate (as a party which is not only for Dalits, but for all poors and for development would win again). It is something which only time will finally tell.
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